Ford (F) Says Brand Sales Surpass 2 Million

According to Ford Motor (NYSE:F) sales analyst Erich Merkle, Ford brand vehicle sales surpassed the 2 million mark in the U.S. for 2011.

The company added that utility vehicles are poised for a 30 percent increase in sales, while Ford's smaller cars are on track for a 20 percent gain.

In 2010, Ford sold just over 1.9 million cars in the U.S. Brand sales were up close to 18 percent through November.

J.D. Power noted that overall auto sales in the United States are on pace to top $13 million.

For 2011, Ford holds a market share in the U.S. of close to 17 percent, making them the No. 2 automaker in the market. General Motors (NYSE:GM), with the help of the government, is No. 1 in sales, holding a 20 percent market share.

As of November, the Ford brand sold 1.86 million new vehicles in the U.S. market. After that was GM's Chevrolet brand at 1.61 million, Toyota Motor Corp's (NYSE:TM) Toyota brand at 1.29 million and Honda Motor Co's (NYSE:HMC) Honda brand at 0.93 million.

Ford was trading at $10.74, gaining $0.06, or 0.61 percent, as of 1:21 PM EST.

Toyota (TM) (SWHC) (VR) (DUK) (ENS) (ESL) Upgraded

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM), Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ: SWHC), Validus Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE: VR), EnerSys (NYSE: ENS), Duke Energy Co. (DUK) and Esterline Technologies Co. (NYSE: ESL) were upgraded by analysts.

Smith & Wesson (SWHC) was upgraded by CL King to a “Buy” rating.

Toyota Motor (TM) was upgraded by Nomura to a “Buy” rating.

Validus Holdings, Ltd. (VR) was upgraded by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating.

Duke Energy Co. (DUK) was upgraded by FBR Capital from an “Underperform” rating to a “Market Perform” rating.

EnerSys (ENS) was upgraded by Zacks Investment Research from an “Underperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating.

Esterline Technologies Co. (ESL) was upgraded by Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) from a “Market Perform” rating to an “Outperform” rating.

Toyota (TM) (REG) (SOMH) (SPP) (TSCO) Upgraded

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM), Regency Centers (NYSE: REG), Somerset Hills Banco (NASDAQ: SOMH), Sappi Limited (NYSE: SPP) and Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) were upgraded by analysts.

Toyota Motor (TM) was upgraded by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) from a “Neutral” rating to an “Overweight” rating.

Regency Centers (REG) was upgraded by Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) from a “Neutral” rating to an “Outperform” rating.

Somerset Hills Banco (SOMH) was upgraded by Stifel Nicolaus from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $9.00 on the company.

Sappi Limited (SPP) was upgraded by Credit Suisse from an “Underperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating.

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) was upgraded by Feltl & Co. from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $76.50 on the company, up from $67.95.

Berry (BRY) (PATH) (JEF) (TM) (HMC) Downgraded

Berry Petroleum (NYSE:BRY), NuPathe (NASDAQ:PATH), Jefferies Group (NYSE:JEF), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC) downgraded by analysts.



Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) downgraded Toyota Motor from an "Outperform" rating to a "Neutral" rating.



Credit Suisse downgraded Honda Motor from an "Outperform" rating to a "Neutral" rating.



Susquehanna downgraded Berry Petroleum from a "Positive" ratng to a "Neutral" rating.



Rochdale Securities downgraded Jefferies Group from a "Buy" rating to a "Neutral" rating.



Lazard downgraded NuPathe from a "Buy" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

Toyota (TM) Slowing or Cutting Production Everywhere

Parts shortage from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan continues to hurt the auto sector, with Toyota (NYSE:TM) probably experiencing the worst of the damage, as parts shortages are resulting in its having to shut or cut back on production across the globe, with Europe and China being the latest added to the list.

On Tuesday Toyota said it will extend its production cuts at its factories in North America to the early part of June, suggesting shortages of models at Toyota dealerships.

In Europe there will be an eight-day halt in production for the same reasons.

The automaker added China will also experience a reduction in production from a lack of some parts. China factories will run at about 50 percent capacity through June 5.

Domestically, Toyota resumed car production at all of its plants in on Monday, but they will run at half capacity as well because of parts shortages.

Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Honda (NYSE:HMC) and Nissan have also said they're cutting back to one level or another at a number of their plants.

Toyota was trading at $77.09, up $0.97, or 1.27 percent, as of 2:21 PM EDT.

Morgan Stanley (MS) Sees Ford (F) (GM) (TM) (HMC) Production Falling

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said it has reduced its 2011 vehicle production forecast by about 10 percent from last year, as auto makers like Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC), among others, will definitely be negatively affected by the disasters in Japan.

The bank said the temporary shutdowns and slowdowns will probably affect the results of the second and third quarters.

Auto production in the U.S. is estimated to fall from 14 million units in prior projections to 12.4 million vehicles for the year. That is instead of the former expected growth of about 12 percent for the industry in America.

Specific estimates for individual automakers haven't been made yet, as the impact from the disaster is still largely unknown that specifically on each company.

The largest effect will probably be margins and earnings pressure, along with one-time charges.

Ford was trading at $14.60, down $0.02, or 0.17 percent, as of 12:00 PM EDT. General Motors was at $29.30, falling $0.67, or 2.24 percent. Toyota was trading at $76.03, dropping $1.22, or 1.58 percent. Honda was at $35.66, losing $0.02, or 0.06 percent.

GM (GM) Raising Vehicle Prices on Rising Costs

With the price of oil and metal rising, General Motors (NYSE:GM) said it is going to raise the price of its cars and trucks by an average of $123 a vehicle, joining major competitors Ford (NYSE:F) and Toyota (NYSE:TM), which have already done the same.

This shows the rising price of oil in particular is starting to weight on the industry and have a potentially detrimental impact on sales as the companies protect margins and earnings in light of the need to offer discounts to generate sales in the ongoing weak U.S. economy.

GM said the price increases will affect almost all Buick, Chevrolet, Cadillac and GMC models, and will go into effect in the American market on May 2. Only the U.S. market will have prices increased at this time.

According to the Labor Department, the Producer Price Index increased 0.7 percent in March, and has soared 5.8 percent over the last 12 months.

General Motors closed Monday at $29.97, falling $0.27, or 0.89 percent.

Toyota (TM) Production Stopped at Five European Plants

Production at five plants in Europe will be halted by Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) for several days in April in May based on a shortage of supplies from the earthquake in Japan.

According to Toyota, its Burnaston and Deeside plants in Britain, sites in Adapazari in Turkey, Valenciennes in France and Jelcz-Laskowice in Poland will close on April 21, 22, from April 25 to 29 and on May 2.

"Even if the supply chain has not yet been interrupted, short-term parts shortages are foreseeable," the company said,

This is probably one of the more benign effects on a market from the parts shortage fallout for Toyota and other Japanese auto makers, as Toyota has only a 4 percent market share in Europe, while Nissan has under 3 percent.

Expectations are things will get worse before they get better though.

Toyota Motor was trading at $77.96, up $0.76, or 0.98 percent, as of 9:58 AM EDT.

Ford (F) Expects Asian Production Slowdown

After taking some big hits on Tuesday early in the trading session, shares of Ford Motor (NYSE:F) rebounded some after the company said it may have to completely halt production in the Asia-Pacific region in the latter part of April, or a minimum, slow it down.

Probable parts shortages because of the earthquake in Japan continue to be the impetus behind the situation.

Ford said in a filing, “Should the supply of a key material or component from Japan be disrupted and an alternate supply not be available, we could have to reduce or temporarily cease production of vehicles, which could adversely affect our and Ford Motor Credit Co.’s financial condition and results of operations.”

Competitors Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM), Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC) and Nissan Motors (NSANY) continue to come to grips in their domestic market. Some analysts believe the Detroit car makers, including General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford, will be able to grow more market share as a result, but that doesn't seem to be as certain as some may think, as it doesn't matter how many parts are short, but what those parts will be and if they're interchangeable or have alternative sources.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) analyst Noriyuki Matsushima noted last week, “The full extent of damage to the supply chain and production disruption from the power outages are being underestimated by the market, and we would avoid the sector as things stand.”

I think he's right. It appears there is far too much optimism in the auto sector by analysts and media outlets, who seem to ignore the realities and focus on their own wishful thinking.

Ford closed Tuesday at $14.91, up $0.05, or 0.34 percent. In after hours the company was trading the same, as of 6:30 PM EDT.

Toyota (TM) Warns of Summer Car Shortages

In a warning message sent to auto dealers, Toyota (NYSE:TM) said it expects there to be car shortages in the summer months, citing consequences from the earthquake in Japan, which could limit shipments.

In a memo recently sent to dealers, the company said the amount of supply could be "significantly impacted" from recent events.

The company said they're still going researching the circumstances to make a determination on what production levels for May, June and July will be.

Major competitors like Ford Motor (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) have all been impacted by the disaster in Japan, and there remains a lot of questions for those company as well, although Japanese companies are expected to incur the most impact.

Toyota was trading at $77.30, gaining $0.80, or 1.05 percent, as of 1:46 PM EDT.

Will Sirius (SIRI) Get Boost from (F) (GM) (HMC) (TM) April Incentives

As the auto industry goes so goes Sirius (NASDAQ:SIRI), as Ford Motor (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC), among others, are rolling out incentives after a slower March.

Most of the auto companies cut back on incentives in March to protect margins and earnings, and even though they enjoyed a better month than the year and month before, there were signs of slowing down.

Concerns over how consumers will respond to the rising price of gas, which could result in them holding on to their tax returns rather than spend their money, is also a major reason for boosting incentives again.

Parts shortages also weigh on the industry, as ongoing concern about the real depths of the crisis have many doubting how much supply is really there.

All of this doesn't matter for Sirius, in the sense that whatever the real situation is, it will manifest itself no matter what the auto industry communicates.

This will either push up sales or it won't. There are either enough parts or there aren't. While we don't know it, and it makes it hard to make investing decisions, we'll just have to watch closes and wait it out to see where sales really are standing.

Incentives will do nothing if some of the sales can't be made because the cars aren't being built. And that could play out for a couple of months, and we still have aftershocks in Japan which are a legitimate threat.

As to the cars that are available for sale, the high gas price issue is still a key factor, as mentioned, and that won't be entirely overcome if consumers are convinced they need to protect their capital in case of emergency situations. That happened when gas prices rose not too long ago, and it is approaching the numbers where it could do it again.

Sirius shareholders and potential investors are pretty much held captive at this time until this unfolds, unless they want to take a big risk. Now it's shooting craps though, and there is no certainty which way things will go.

Sirius closed Friday at $1.76, even with Thursday's close.

Run from (F) (GM) (TM) HMC) Says Citigroup (C)

Saying the supply chain of the auto industry is damaged worst than being accounted for by investors, Citigroup (NYSE:C) recommends investors to stay away from auto stocks like Ford (NYSE:F), Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM), Honda Motor Company (NYSE:HMC) and General Motors (NYSE:GM).

Citigroup said, “While some investors may be tempted to position for a recovery in H2 and out, the full extent of damage to the supply chain and production disruption from the power outages [in Japan (NYSE:EWJ)] is being underestimated by the market, and we would avoid the sector as things stand.”

The giant bank has updated their ratings on the major automakers to "Sell."

I think in this case, as far as the disruptions in parts supply, Citigroup is right. It just sounds too positive out there, as if with a wave of the hand everything will just turn around and Japan will quickly right itself. We'll find out soon enough. The supple issue needs to be watched much more closely by investors, and that will probably only be known by shutdowns, as the auto industry in many cases still won't reveal what parts are in fact they're having trouble getting.

On a secondary note, investors in Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) need to include this as part of their decision-making process, as Sirius is totally dependent upon the health of the auto industry for its own growth.

Ford was trading at $15.36, falling $0.16, or 1.06 percent, as of 1:20 PM EDT. Toyota was at $78.10, gaining $0.89, or 1.15 percent. Honda was trading at $34.75, up $0.55, or 1.61 percent. General Motors was down to $31.69, dropping $0.62, or 1.92 percent.

Microsoft (MSFT), Toyota (TM) in Azure Deal

A deal has been landed between Microsoft (NYSE:MSFT) and Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) which will result in the Japanese company using the Windows Azure platform in its cars.

As part of the agreement, the two companies will invest about $12 million in Toyota Media Service Co., a Toyota Motors subsidiary that offers digital information services to owners of Toyota vehicles.

The Azure platform is already being used by Toyota for its Lexus roadside and crash assistance service.

Azure is a cloud computing operating system which will give Toyota owners computing services within the vehicle.

Microsoft has a similar deal in place with Ford (NYSE:F) concerning the development of a service called Sync.

Toyota Motor was trading at $77.55, falling $0.08, or 0.10 percent, as of 2:35 PM EDT. Microsoft was trading at $26.17, gaining $0.39, or 1.51 percent.

Will Ford (F), GM (GM) Gain Share on Japanese Woes?

The idea is floating around that American automakers like Ford Motor (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) could gain some significant market share on the premise Japanese automakers such as Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC) and Nissan Motors (OTC:NSANY) are more exposed to parts shortages as a result of the earthquake in Japan.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) analyst Rod Lache noted, “We continue to believe that U.S. auto makers will be only moderately impacted by supply shortages. Therefore, we believe that they will have relatively higher inventory and thus higher market share.”

He concluded share gains of 2% to 3% for General Motors and Ford Motor to more than offset the lower sales figure he models, which will drop from 13 million to 12.5 million in the U.S. in his estimation.

The though seems not to be how many parts will be disrupted, as that will obviously be in relationship to the Japanese auto makers, but what parts will be scarce.

If a major part is needed by American auto makers, it won't matter if they only have shortage on 6 parts and their Japanese have shortages with 150 parts. If auto manufacturers are short on a part that affects rolling out a product, it won't matter the number of parts that are short.

There is also the issue of transporting of parts, which is connected more to Toyota than the rest of the companies.

But assuming all parts will be accessible to American auto manufacturers, than they obviously will have a clear advantage in the months ahead. That's still not a guarantee though, and it may not be as clear as it appears when looked at from the point of view of vital parts.

Ford (F) Raising Vehicle Prices $117 Each

The continuing rise in commodity prices has resulted in Ford (NYSE:F) raising its vehicle cost by $117 for each individual one, according to spokesman Todd Nissen.

Nissen added that it wasn't in connection to supply disruptions coming from the consequences of the earthquake in Japan. "This was in the works for months," Nissen said. "We’re responding to higher commodity prices, and this is in keeping with what we’re seeing from our competitors."

This follows on the heels of Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), which also recently announced it was raising prices on its vehicles.

Ford said they see the boost in commodities prices adding over $1 billion to the costs of the company in 2011.

Expectations are auto sales in the U.S. will probably fall in April and May because of the higher prices and limits placed by the manufacturers on sales to fleet customers.

Ford closed Monday at $15.55, gaining $0.39, or 2.57 percent.

All Toyota's (TM) American Plants to be Shut Down in April

Toyota (NYSE:TM) plants in North America will all be shut down in April, said the company, saying it is inevitable that they will all have to be shut down temporarily during the month.

More than likely the shutdowns will be in the latter part of April, as parts shortages increase as the month goes on.

American-based companies have been spared more of the pain because some of their parts were already being shipped when the earthquake in Japan hit, helping them to have minimal disruption so far, although that's going to increase if things don't turn around soon.

It's unclear at this time whether or not all the factories will be closed at once or it'll be staggered.

Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), and others said they will be forced to shut production even more, as their supplies are running low.

Only the restart of production in Japan could keep that from happening, an unlikely scenario.

Toyota closed Monday at $79.48, dropping $1.03, or 1.28 percent.

Dangers Ford (F) (GM) (TM) (HMC) Face

Even though March was a decent Month for auto makers when compared to last year, Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC), among others are facing even more of a challenge because of those decent performances than they had if it has been slower.

The major problem is March isn't the typical big month in Auto sales, so while percentages of growth are a legitimate barometer of growth, it's not when measured against more important sales months like April.

So the success in March will probably become disaster in April, as parts shortage and skyrocketing gas prices are going to be challenges they may not be able to successfully navigate.

For example, even though parts were an issue in March, it wasn't as much as it'll be in April, as parts were already in process of being delivered in March when the earthquake hit Japan. April should see more slowdowns and cutbacks in production as a result, as evidenced by Ford shutting two of its plants down for a week each.

What is unknown is whether or not the American consumer will choose to use their tax refunds to acquire new vehicles in the midst of the type of high gas price environment we face.

Add to that the uncertainty concerning parts and April is a big question mark for the industry even with it having decent sales in March.

Ford (F) (GM) (TM) (HMC) Still Face Shortage Pressure

It was only a matter of time before Ford (NYSE:F) would have to admit it was affected by the part shortage resulting from the earthquake in Japan, as they had been saying they were experiencing no disruptions. They are now. Others like General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) have also had to cut back on production in response to the disaster.

Ford is shuttering production at two of its auto plants for a week. One in Kentucky starting on Monday and the other in Michigan. The plant in Michigan is halting because of slow sales of Mustangs.
In Kentucky its in relationship to the F-Series Super Duty truck.

George Pipas, a sales analyst for Ford Motor Co., said, “We have business buyers who use the vehicle to make a living, and demand from that sector right now is pretty strong,” Pipas said, noting that overall sales for F-Series trucks rose to 53,272 in March, up 25 percent from a year ago.

“We have seen lower demand from individual buyers, and our sense is that the higher gas prices we’ve all been exposed to over the past three months has put some of those buyers on the sidelines.”

Ford closed Friday at $15.16, gaining $0.25, or 1.68 percent.

Toyota (TM) Falters in March Sales

Among the major auto companies, Toyota (NYSE:TM) is the only one among them with the dubious distinction of experiencing a year-over-year decline in sales.

While General Motors (NYSE:GM) didn't have a great March either, it was somewhat expected because of its dropping of a number of industry-high incentives, which was eating into its margins and earnings.

Ford Motor (NYSE:F) had a decent month, beating out General Motors in sales for March.

Toyota's sales fell to 176,222 vehicles for the month, down from 186,863 they sold in March 2010. Sales of light trucks and SUVs dropped 15 percent and 23 percent in March 2011.

Honda (NYSE:HMC) enjoyed a boost in sales, rising to 133,650, a gain of 23 percent.

Honda closed Friday at $36.82, falling $0.69, or 1.84 percent. Toyota closed at $80.51, gaining $0.26, or 0.32 percent.

Is Sirius XM (SIRI) Doomed?

No matter how much its fans attempt to push the share price of Sirius (NASDAQ:SIRI) up, it seems a couple of new bits of negative news manages to push the company down again.

The latest is the lawsuit by shareholders who say the company has reneged on its promise to not increase prices when they were granted permission to merge with XM.

Shareholders claim Sirius has boosted prices as high as 40 percent from the time of that promise.

There is also the lawsuit by Howard Stern which could have a significant impact on the company, especially if things get ugly there.

But probably more important than those one-time events are the health of the auto industry, which while struggling, appeared to be on the move again before the earthquake in Japan has brought it under extreme pressure.

While downplaying the effects at this time in order to keep investors from bolting, auto companies like Ford (NYSE:F), GM (NYSE:GM), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) are far from certain as to their short term future, as parts are already causing a lot of pressure at the companies, and if that remains to be the situation, it'll dramatically impact the industry, and by extension, the performance of Sirius as well, which is almost completely dependent on it for growth and earnings.

Finally, churn rate at the satellite company has also increased, rising from 1.7 percent in 2007 to 1.9 percent in 2010. Difficult economic conditions could cause that to go even higher, as the price of gas always results in secondary services like Sirius in people's lives to be dropped.

That could happen very quickly if gas prices rise to levels predicted over the summer months.

Much of the positive sentiment from fans of Sirius is based on best-case-scenarios, which are rapidly crumbling under the reality of the forces mentioned above.

Sirius closed Thursday at $1.65, dropping $0.07, or 3.79 percent.