Lazard (LAZ), United Rentals (URI), Mercer International (MERC), Patterson-UTI (PTEN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and WNS Holdings (WNS) were upgraded by analysts.
United Rentals (URI) was upgraded by RBC Capital from an "Outperform" rating to a "Top Pick" rating.
Lazard (LAZ) was upgraded by Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) from a "Neutral" rating to an "Outperform" rating.
Mercer International (MERC) was upgraded by Raymond James (NYSE:RJF) from a "Market Perform" rating to an "Outperform" rating.
Patterson-UTI (PTEN) was upgraded by RBC Capital from an "Equalweight" rating to an "Overweight" rating.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) was upgraded by RBC Capital from a "Sector Perform" rating to a "Top Pick" rating.
WNS Holdings (WNS) was upgraded by Robert W. Baird from a "Neutral" rating to an "Outperform" rating. They have a price target of $13 on the company.
Showing posts with label Lazard Ltd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lazard Ltd. Show all posts
Monday, December 19, 2011
Friday, August 5, 2011
Sourcefire (FIRE) (GOOD) (LAZ) (LHCG) (LPNT) Upgraded
Sourcefire, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE), Gladstone Commercial Corp (NASDAQ: GOOD), Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ), LHC Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LHCG) and Lifepoint Hospitals (NASDAQ: LPNT) upgraded by analysts.
Sourcefire, Inc. (FIRE) was upgraded by UBS AG (NYSE:UBS) from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $32.00 on the company.
Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) was upgraded by Hilliard Lyons from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $19.00 on the company.
Lazard Ltd (LAZ) was upgraded by Citigroup (NYSE:C) from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $42.00 on the company.
LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG) was upgraded by Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) from an “Underperform” rating to a “Hold” rating. They have a price target of $20.00 on the company, up from $19.00.
Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT) was upgraded by Leerink from an “Underperform” rating to a “Market Perform” rating.
Sourcefire, Inc. (FIRE) was upgraded by UBS AG (NYSE:UBS) from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $32.00 on the company.
Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) was upgraded by Hilliard Lyons from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $19.00 on the company.
Lazard Ltd (LAZ) was upgraded by Citigroup (NYSE:C) from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. They have a price target of $42.00 on the company.
LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG) was upgraded by Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) from an “Underperform” rating to a “Hold” rating. They have a price target of $20.00 on the company, up from $19.00.
Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT) was upgraded by Leerink from an “Underperform” rating to a “Market Perform” rating.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Price Targets (INTC) (JBLU) (LABL) (LAZ) (LLY) Weekly Recap
Price targets on shares of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Jetblue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU), Multi Color Corp (NASDAQ: LABL), Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) updated by analysts during the last week.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Price Targets on (INTC) (JBLU) (LABL) (LAZ) (LLY) Updated
Price targets on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Jetblue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU), Multi Color Corp (NASDAQ: LABL), Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) were updated by analysts.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Price Targets on (INTC) (JBLU) (LABL) (LAZ) (LLY) Updated
Price targets on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Jetblue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU), Multi Color Corp (NASDAQ: LABL), Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) were updated by analysts.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised their price target on Intel (INTC) from $24.00 to $26.00. They have a “neutral” rating on the company.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) raised their price target on Jetblue Airways Corp (JBLU) from $7.00 to $8.00.
Hilliard Lyons raised their price target on Multi Color Corp (LABL) from $24.00 to $30.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Lazard Ltd (LAZ) from $51.00 to $54.00. They have a “buy” rating on the company.
Bank of America raised their price target on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) to $43.00.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Hexcel (HXL) (SIRI) (SMOD) (YOKU) Get Ratings Downgrades
Hexcel Co. (NYSE: HXL), Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), Smart Modular Tech (NASDAQ: SMOD) and Youku.com Inc (NASDAQ: YOKU) downgraded by analysts.
Wedbush downgraded Hexcel Co. (HXL) from an “Outperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating. They set a price target of $22.00 on the company.
Lazard Capital downgraded Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) from a “Buy” rating to a “Neutral” rating.
Wedbush downgraded Smart Modular Tech (SMOD) from an “Outperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating. They placed a price target of $9.25 on the firm, down from $11.00.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded Youku.com Inc (YOKU) from a “Buy” rating to a “Neutral” rating.
Wedbush downgraded Hexcel Co. (HXL) from an “Outperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating. They set a price target of $22.00 on the company.
Lazard Capital downgraded Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) from a “Buy” rating to a “Neutral” rating.
Wedbush downgraded Smart Modular Tech (SMOD) from an “Outperform” rating to a “Neutral” rating. They placed a price target of $9.25 on the firm, down from $11.00.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded Youku.com Inc (YOKU) from a “Buy” rating to a “Neutral” rating.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Sirius (SIRI) Downgraded by Lazard on Valuation, Earnings
Lazard analyst Barton Crockett downgraded Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI), citing it hitting up against his price target and the stock price reflecting the Sirius story, which is well-known to most investors.
Crockett said, “A key upside argument from here is rate hikes, with a merger rate hike restriction likely to end in 2Q11. While Sirius XM’s subs are loyal and engaged and we believe will pay more, we also believe that Sirius XM is likely to act conservatively, in recognition of a still tepid consumer environment. A profusion of new online music streaming services from Internet companies, startups, and IPO candidates also augurs for some pricing caution. We are not willing to assume big upside to our long-term 3% rate hike assumption.”
He sees Liberty Capital as a better play for Sirius: “Our DCF of surging free cash flow is consistent with the current stock price, which is an adj. EV (incl NOLs) of 18.1x 2011E adj. EBITDA. For Sirius exposure, we see a better value at Liberty Capital, which owns 40% of Sirius XM, and trades a third below the pre-tax value of its parts. We see likely scenarios for LCAPA to exit these stakes tax-free.”
Lazard downgraded Sirius from "Buy" to "Neutral." Sirius was trading at $1.975, up $0.01, or 0.51 percent, as of 2:37 PM EDT.
Crockett said, “A key upside argument from here is rate hikes, with a merger rate hike restriction likely to end in 2Q11. While Sirius XM’s subs are loyal and engaged and we believe will pay more, we also believe that Sirius XM is likely to act conservatively, in recognition of a still tepid consumer environment. A profusion of new online music streaming services from Internet companies, startups, and IPO candidates also augurs for some pricing caution. We are not willing to assume big upside to our long-term 3% rate hike assumption.”
He sees Liberty Capital as a better play for Sirius: “Our DCF of surging free cash flow is consistent with the current stock price, which is an adj. EV (incl NOLs) of 18.1x 2011E adj. EBITDA. For Sirius exposure, we see a better value at Liberty Capital, which owns 40% of Sirius XM, and trades a third below the pre-tax value of its parts. We see likely scenarios for LCAPA to exit these stakes tax-free.”
Lazard downgraded Sirius from "Buy" to "Neutral." Sirius was trading at $1.975, up $0.01, or 0.51 percent, as of 2:37 PM EDT.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Best Corp (ABFS) (FHN) (JCI) (NFLX) (VECO) PTs Adjusted by Analysts
Analysts cut and boosted their price targets on shares of Best Corp (NASDAQ: ABFS), First Horizon National Co. (NYSE: FHN), Johnson Controls, Inc. (NYSE: JCI), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: VECO) on April 26.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) cut its price target on Arkansas Best Corp (ABFS) from $27.00 to $24.00. They have a “Hold” rating on the company.
Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) cut their price target on First Horizon National Co. (FHN) from $13.00 to $12.00.
Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) boosted its price target on Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) from $49.00 to $53.00. They have an “Outperform” rating on the firm.
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) from $230.00 to $280.00. They have an “Outperform” rating on the media content delivery company.
Lazard Capital raised their price target on Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO) from $54.00 to $58.00.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) cut its price target on Arkansas Best Corp (ABFS) from $27.00 to $24.00. They have a “Hold” rating on the company.
Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) cut their price target on First Horizon National Co. (FHN) from $13.00 to $12.00.
Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) boosted its price target on Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) from $49.00 to $53.00. They have an “Outperform” rating on the firm.
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) from $230.00 to $280.00. They have an “Outperform” rating on the media content delivery company.
Lazard Capital raised their price target on Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO) from $54.00 to $58.00.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Goldman (GS) Plunges in M&A Ratings
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) plunged to 10th place in M&A rating in the quarter, missing out on the two mega deals which made the difference between now and its second place finish in the last quarter.
Goldman (GS), advised on $71 billion worth of U.S. deals in the first quarter, far less than JPMorgan Chase & Co's (NYSE:JPM) chart-topping $170 billion, and even beneath much smaller banks such as Rothschild, Evercore Partners Inc (NYSE:EVR) and Lazard Ltd (NYSE:LAZ).
It is Goldman's lowest quarterly ranking since Thomson Reuters began tracking U.S. M&A deals in 1990. The drop is mainly because the firm did not advise on two mega deals: AT&T Inc's (NYSE:T) $39 billion deal for T-Mobile USA and the $59 billion restructuring of insurer American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG).
"The numbers are an example of the lumpiness of the business, particularly when you get the mega-deals," said Michael Holland, chairman of New York-based money manager Holland & Co.
Goldman closed Thursday at $159.91, gaining $0.38, or 0.24 percent.
Goldman (GS), advised on $71 billion worth of U.S. deals in the first quarter, far less than JPMorgan Chase & Co's (NYSE:JPM) chart-topping $170 billion, and even beneath much smaller banks such as Rothschild, Evercore Partners Inc (NYSE:EVR) and Lazard Ltd (NYSE:LAZ).
It is Goldman's lowest quarterly ranking since Thomson Reuters began tracking U.S. M&A deals in 1990. The drop is mainly because the firm did not advise on two mega deals: AT&T Inc's (NYSE:T) $39 billion deal for T-Mobile USA and the $59 billion restructuring of insurer American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG).
"The numbers are an example of the lumpiness of the business, particularly when you get the mega-deals," said Michael Holland, chairman of New York-based money manager Holland & Co.
Goldman closed Thursday at $159.91, gaining $0.38, or 0.24 percent.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Bank of America (BAC) Downgrades Citi (C), Goldman (GS)
Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) were downgraded by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analyst Guy Moszkowski, citing weak results in the first quarter.
Moszkowski said in the note to clients, "Results [are] unlikely to be dismal, and should show improvement over Q4, but we don't expect seasonal improvement as strong [and] as often seen in the past. Client engagement remains subdued, Mid-East turmoil likely only to further reduce customer risk appetite."
Also noted were the effects of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which will probably drive investors to financial institutions like The Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX), KKR (NYSE:KKR) and Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), which benefit from the new rules, or at minimum aren't affected as much by them.
Citigroup was trading at $4.57, down $0.11, or 2.46 percent, as of 12:03 PM EST. Goldman Sachs was trading at $161.91, down $2.58, or 1.57 percent.
Moszkowski said in the note to clients, "Results [are] unlikely to be dismal, and should show improvement over Q4, but we don't expect seasonal improvement as strong [and] as often seen in the past. Client engagement remains subdued, Mid-East turmoil likely only to further reduce customer risk appetite."
Also noted were the effects of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which will probably drive investors to financial institutions like The Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX), KKR (NYSE:KKR) and Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), which benefit from the new rules, or at minimum aren't affected as much by them.
Citigroup was trading at $4.57, down $0.11, or 2.46 percent, as of 12:03 PM EST. Goldman Sachs was trading at $161.91, down $2.58, or 1.57 percent.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Goldman (NYSE:GS) Looks at AMERITRADE (Nasdaq:AMTD), E*TRADE (Nasdaq:ETFC), TradeStation Group (Nasdaq:TRAD), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Xpress Holdings (Nasdaq:OXPS)
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) gave an update on discount brokers and investment banks today, covering a plethora of companies, including AMERITRADE (Nasdaq:AMTD), E*TRADE (Nasdaq:ETFC), TradeStation Group (Nasdaq:TRAD), Schwab (Nasdaq:SCHW), Xpress Holdings (Nasdaq:OXPS) for discount brokers, and Duff & Phelps (NYSE:DUF), Evercore Partners (NYSE:EVR), Greenhill & Co (NYSE:GHL), Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Jefferies (NYSE:JEF), Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC), Raymond James (NYSE:RJF), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), LPL Investment (Nasdaq:LPLA) and Stifel Nicolaus (NYSE:SF) for investment firms.
Overall Goldman believes there is a healthy outlook for the industry, although noting tailwinds could affect some of them.
Goldman noted, "Despite tailwinds, valuations appear full - The brokerage group looks poised to have a robust 2011, with our 2011 estimates implying 48% yoy EPS growth, led by boutique M&A firms EVR and GHL, as well as by PJC (given exposure to ECM issuance). Improving GDP growth (GS Global ECS Research estimates +3.4% in 2011) and higher equity markets should also lift retail-sensitive names such as SF and LPL, but sector valuations look full at 119% of 5-year average forward P/E.
"4Q10 may be tough, but 2011-12 look better - With the notable exception of LAZ, we lower our 4Q10 estimates for the Smid-cap Brokers due to muted trading activity levels and challenging muni market conditions. That said, we raise our 2011-12 estimates to reflect the favorable environment for M&A and ECM activity in 2011. We also raise our price targets for the group by an average of 11%, which are now based on our 2011 EPS targets or 4Q11 tangible book value estimates for the investment banks (JEF, MS, PJC, RJF, and SF)."
For Discount Brokers:
Goldman raises its price target on AMERITRADE (AMTD) (Buy) from $20 to $23, E*TRADE (ETFC) (Neutral) from $17 to $18, TradeStation Group (TRAD) (Neutral) from $6 to $7 and Schwab (SCHW) (Neutral) from $17 to $19. But, Goldman lowers options Xpress Holdings (OXPS) (Sell) from $16 to $15.
For Investment Firms:
Goldman raises its price target on Duff & Phelps (DUF) (Neutral) from $13 to $16, Evercore Partners (EVR) (Buy) from $35 to $41, Greenhill & Co (GHL) (Neutral) from $72 to $82, Lazard (LAZ) (Neutral) from $42 to $46, Jefferies (JEF) (Sell) from $23 to $24, Piper Jaffray (PJC) (Neutral) from $32 to $40, Raymond James (RJF) (Neutral) from $31 to $36, and Stifel Nicolaus (SF) (Buy) from $65 to $73.
Goldman maintains a Neutral rating on Morgan Stanley (MS) and $30 price target. LPL Investment (LPLA) stays a 'Buy' and $40 price target.
Overall Goldman believes there is a healthy outlook for the industry, although noting tailwinds could affect some of them.
Goldman noted, "Despite tailwinds, valuations appear full - The brokerage group looks poised to have a robust 2011, with our 2011 estimates implying 48% yoy EPS growth, led by boutique M&A firms EVR and GHL, as well as by PJC (given exposure to ECM issuance). Improving GDP growth (GS Global ECS Research estimates +3.4% in 2011) and higher equity markets should also lift retail-sensitive names such as SF and LPL, but sector valuations look full at 119% of 5-year average forward P/E.
"4Q10 may be tough, but 2011-12 look better - With the notable exception of LAZ, we lower our 4Q10 estimates for the Smid-cap Brokers due to muted trading activity levels and challenging muni market conditions. That said, we raise our 2011-12 estimates to reflect the favorable environment for M&A and ECM activity in 2011. We also raise our price targets for the group by an average of 11%, which are now based on our 2011 EPS targets or 4Q11 tangible book value estimates for the investment banks (JEF, MS, PJC, RJF, and SF)."
For Discount Brokers:
Goldman raises its price target on AMERITRADE (AMTD) (Buy) from $20 to $23, E*TRADE (ETFC) (Neutral) from $17 to $18, TradeStation Group (TRAD) (Neutral) from $6 to $7 and Schwab (SCHW) (Neutral) from $17 to $19. But, Goldman lowers options Xpress Holdings (OXPS) (Sell) from $16 to $15.
For Investment Firms:
Goldman raises its price target on Duff & Phelps (DUF) (Neutral) from $13 to $16, Evercore Partners (EVR) (Buy) from $35 to $41, Greenhill & Co (GHL) (Neutral) from $72 to $82, Lazard (LAZ) (Neutral) from $42 to $46, Jefferies (JEF) (Sell) from $23 to $24, Piper Jaffray (PJC) (Neutral) from $32 to $40, Raymond James (RJF) (Neutral) from $31 to $36, and Stifel Nicolaus (SF) (Buy) from $65 to $73.
Goldman maintains a Neutral rating on Morgan Stanley (MS) and $30 price target. LPL Investment (LPLA) stays a 'Buy' and $40 price target.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Tailwinds Not Appreciated Says Lazard
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has significant tailwinds that are underappreciated, according to Lazard.
Lazard Capital analyst Colin Sebastian cited elements of Amazon with potential, including strong investments in China, like Joyo.com; cloud-based services; potential in mobile e-commerce; and increasing migration to online marketing.
Sebastian added that Amazon is also getting better at widening their retail margins.
Lazard raised their rating on Amazon from "Hold" to "Buy." Amazon closed Friday at $185.49. Lazard has a price target of $225 on retail giant.
Lazard Capital analyst Colin Sebastian cited elements of Amazon with potential, including strong investments in China, like Joyo.com; cloud-based services; potential in mobile e-commerce; and increasing migration to online marketing.
Sebastian added that Amazon is also getting better at widening their retail margins.
Lazard raised their rating on Amazon from "Hold" to "Buy." Amazon closed Friday at $185.49. Lazard has a price target of $225 on retail giant.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Greenhill (NYSE:GHL), Evercore (NYSE:EVR) Previewed by Ticonderoga
Boutique brokers and asset managers Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) and Evercore (NYSE:EVR) were previewed by Ticonderoga Securities for the fourth quarter.
Here's their outlook on the three:
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) Q4 Preview. We expect EPS of $0.65 driven by seasonal strength in merger revenues and performance fees. In conjunction with appreciating asset levels, we are raising our 2011 EPS estimate to $2.52 from $2.48. We are also instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.75. Our quarterly revenue estimate is $533 million with advisory comprising $297 million. We do believe the bi-annual conference call could provide more color around the outlook as well as improving cost efficiency. We remain bullish on shares. We reiterate our Buy rating and $45 price target. We note that LAZ's coverage ratio—estimated fees from current public backlog/our forward three-quarter (Q4'10, Q1'11 & Q2'11) M&A & restructuring revenue estimate—was 85% at the end of December vs. 87% on October 30, 2010.
Lowering Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) Q4, 2011 and Implementing 2012. We are lowering our Q4 EPS estimate to $0.35 from $0.57. The revision is reflective of negative valuation adjustments on Iridium, a slightly higher compensation ratio, and weaker than previously estimated advisory revenues. We are expecting Q4 advisory revenues of $61 million. We estimate that GHL completed 11 deals in the public backlog this quarter worth $17.3bn; this compares to 15 deals worth 28bn last quarter. We are also lowering our 2011 EPS estimate to $3.09 from $3.29 previously. The revision is reflective of a higher compensation ratio. Our full-year ratio is now 48.4% compared with 46.4% previously. We are instituting a 2012 estimate of $3.62. For full-year 2011 and 2012, we are modeling advisory revenue growth of 54% and 8%, respectively. Backlog coverage ended the period at 62% vs. 36% on October 30, 2010. We reiterate our Neutral rating.
Lowering Evercore (NYSE:EVR) Q4 and Raising 2011. We are lowering our Q4'10 EPS estimate to $0.20 from $0.35; our 2011 EPS estimate goes to $1.73 from $1.61, and we are instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.27. The downward revision to our Q4 estimate is primarily driven by fewer than expected deal closings during the period; we expect i-banking revenues to be $59.4mm for the quarter, down from ~$100mm last quarter. For 2011, we are estimating a 43% increase in i-banking revenues vs. our 2010 estimate and an overall comp ratio of 59.6%, down from an estimate of 61.2% for 2010. EVR's backlog coverage ended the quarter at 88%, an improvement from 80% on October 30, 2010, and the best in the group.
Lazard closed Tuesday at $39.42, down $0.25, or 0.63 percent. Greenhill closed at $79.85, down $1.84, or 2.25 percent. Evercore closed at $34.19, down $1.37, or 3.85 percent.
Here's their outlook on the three:
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) Q4 Preview. We expect EPS of $0.65 driven by seasonal strength in merger revenues and performance fees. In conjunction with appreciating asset levels, we are raising our 2011 EPS estimate to $2.52 from $2.48. We are also instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.75. Our quarterly revenue estimate is $533 million with advisory comprising $297 million. We do believe the bi-annual conference call could provide more color around the outlook as well as improving cost efficiency. We remain bullish on shares. We reiterate our Buy rating and $45 price target. We note that LAZ's coverage ratio—estimated fees from current public backlog/our forward three-quarter (Q4'10, Q1'11 & Q2'11) M&A & restructuring revenue estimate—was 85% at the end of December vs. 87% on October 30, 2010.
Lowering Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) Q4, 2011 and Implementing 2012. We are lowering our Q4 EPS estimate to $0.35 from $0.57. The revision is reflective of negative valuation adjustments on Iridium, a slightly higher compensation ratio, and weaker than previously estimated advisory revenues. We are expecting Q4 advisory revenues of $61 million. We estimate that GHL completed 11 deals in the public backlog this quarter worth $17.3bn; this compares to 15 deals worth 28bn last quarter. We are also lowering our 2011 EPS estimate to $3.09 from $3.29 previously. The revision is reflective of a higher compensation ratio. Our full-year ratio is now 48.4% compared with 46.4% previously. We are instituting a 2012 estimate of $3.62. For full-year 2011 and 2012, we are modeling advisory revenue growth of 54% and 8%, respectively. Backlog coverage ended the period at 62% vs. 36% on October 30, 2010. We reiterate our Neutral rating.
Lowering Evercore (NYSE:EVR) Q4 and Raising 2011. We are lowering our Q4'10 EPS estimate to $0.20 from $0.35; our 2011 EPS estimate goes to $1.73 from $1.61, and we are instituting a 2012 EPS estimate of $2.27. The downward revision to our Q4 estimate is primarily driven by fewer than expected deal closings during the period; we expect i-banking revenues to be $59.4mm for the quarter, down from ~$100mm last quarter. For 2011, we are estimating a 43% increase in i-banking revenues vs. our 2010 estimate and an overall comp ratio of 59.6%, down from an estimate of 61.2% for 2010. EVR's backlog coverage ended the quarter at 88%, an improvement from 80% on October 30, 2010, and the best in the group.
Lazard closed Tuesday at $39.42, down $0.25, or 0.63 percent. Greenhill closed at $79.85, down $1.84, or 2.25 percent. Evercore closed at $34.19, down $1.37, or 3.85 percent.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Top Picks for Brokers & Asset Managers
In the Brokers & Asset Managers category, Ticonderoga Securities said their favorite picks are Lazard (NYSE:LAZ), Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
Ticonderoga said, "LAZ Still Has Upside Potential; Raising Target to $45. LAZ continues to remain a top pick given the potential for earnings leverage stemming from balance sheet restructuring, more aggressive compensation management, and a generally favorable outlook for advisory businesses. We expect to hear more around these issues when the company reports in mid-January. We estimate that some element of balance sheet restructuring combined with improved compensation metrics could add anywhere from $0.20 to $0.40 to earnings, or the equivalent of $3.20 to $6.40 in share appreciation (based on the current multiple of 16x). Our revised price target is $45, or 18x our 2011 EPS estimate.
"BEN Remains Undervalued: Target $135. BEN remains our top AUM name. The decision not to pay a special dividend combined with industry bond outflows has created a “shoot first ask questions later” mentality in the stock. However, the sell-off in the stock affords an opportunity to repurchase shares at lower, more accretive levels. Second, the industry has experienced bond outflows, but global flows remain much more resilient. Global is where the bulk of BEN bond flows come from. In addition, we are confident BEN will participate meaningfully in an equity recovery, like it did in the last bull market. BEN’s average annual equity fund growth rate from 2005 through 2007 was 6.5%. With likely record market share today, we believe the potential exists for meaningful exchanges from bonds into equity products. Note that in the most recent quarter, the global bond category had a record $2.3 billion in exchanges.
"MS Slow and Steady Progress; Raising Target to $31. We believe MS has a chance to break out in 2011. While there is still plenty of work ahead, an improving economic landscape has positive implications for investment banking, particularly equity and M&A, where MS is historically stronger. In addition, rising rates generally translate well into greater commodity activity, most notably the energy complex, where MS maintains a leading position. Retail also benefits from rising rates. Any incremental news on capital also could serve shares well. Our revised price target is $31, or 1.1x estimated Q1 2011 tangible book value."
Lazard closed Monday at $39.67, up $0.18, or 0.46 percent. Franklin Resources closed at $113.17, up $1.96, or 1.76 percent. Morgan Stanley ended the session at $28.23, up $1.02, or 3.75 percent.
Ticonderoga said, "LAZ Still Has Upside Potential; Raising Target to $45. LAZ continues to remain a top pick given the potential for earnings leverage stemming from balance sheet restructuring, more aggressive compensation management, and a generally favorable outlook for advisory businesses. We expect to hear more around these issues when the company reports in mid-January. We estimate that some element of balance sheet restructuring combined with improved compensation metrics could add anywhere from $0.20 to $0.40 to earnings, or the equivalent of $3.20 to $6.40 in share appreciation (based on the current multiple of 16x). Our revised price target is $45, or 18x our 2011 EPS estimate.
"BEN Remains Undervalued: Target $135. BEN remains our top AUM name. The decision not to pay a special dividend combined with industry bond outflows has created a “shoot first ask questions later” mentality in the stock. However, the sell-off in the stock affords an opportunity to repurchase shares at lower, more accretive levels. Second, the industry has experienced bond outflows, but global flows remain much more resilient. Global is where the bulk of BEN bond flows come from. In addition, we are confident BEN will participate meaningfully in an equity recovery, like it did in the last bull market. BEN’s average annual equity fund growth rate from 2005 through 2007 was 6.5%. With likely record market share today, we believe the potential exists for meaningful exchanges from bonds into equity products. Note that in the most recent quarter, the global bond category had a record $2.3 billion in exchanges.
"MS Slow and Steady Progress; Raising Target to $31. We believe MS has a chance to break out in 2011. While there is still plenty of work ahead, an improving economic landscape has positive implications for investment banking, particularly equity and M&A, where MS is historically stronger. In addition, rising rates generally translate well into greater commodity activity, most notably the energy complex, where MS maintains a leading position. Retail also benefits from rising rates. Any incremental news on capital also could serve shares well. Our revised price target is $31, or 1.1x estimated Q1 2011 tangible book value."
Lazard closed Monday at $39.67, up $0.18, or 0.46 percent. Franklin Resources closed at $113.17, up $1.96, or 1.76 percent. Morgan Stanley ended the session at $28.23, up $1.02, or 3.75 percent.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Greenhill (NYSE:GHL) Backlog Weakened After Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) Decision with Blackstone (NYSE:BX)
After Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) decided to end their deal with Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Greenhill's (NYSE:GHL) backlog was weakend, although news they were hired by the Treasury Department to consult them on getting rid of their stake in AIG helped them a lot.
Ticonderoga said, "This morning, Dynegy announced its decision to terminate its pact with Blackstone and seek other offers. GHL was advising Dynegy and may continue to do so, but the deal was an estimated 18% of the backlog. Excluding the Dynegy deal, we estimate the backlog coverage ratio (est. fees from the current backlog/our forward 3Q revenue est.) drops to roughly 30% from 36%; this compares to 87% for Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) and 80% for Evercore (NYSE:EVR).
"While there is still time for GHL to build the backlog, consensus 2011 EPS estimates call for a 97% increase vs. 2010. This compares to 26% for LAZ and 77% for EVR. If we do not see a material improvement in deal activity over the next few months, we would expect 2011 EPS estimates to be negatively impacted."
Greenhill closed Tuesday at $75.57, falling $0.38, or 0.50 percent. Ticonderoga maintains a "Neutral" rating on them.
Ticonderoga said, "This morning, Dynegy announced its decision to terminate its pact with Blackstone and seek other offers. GHL was advising Dynegy and may continue to do so, but the deal was an estimated 18% of the backlog. Excluding the Dynegy deal, we estimate the backlog coverage ratio (est. fees from the current backlog/our forward 3Q revenue est.) drops to roughly 30% from 36%; this compares to 87% for Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) and 80% for Evercore (NYSE:EVR).
"While there is still time for GHL to build the backlog, consensus 2011 EPS estimates call for a 97% increase vs. 2010. This compares to 26% for LAZ and 77% for EVR. If we do not see a material improvement in deal activity over the next few months, we would expect 2011 EPS estimates to be negatively impacted."
Greenhill closed Tuesday at $75.57, falling $0.38, or 0.50 percent. Ticonderoga maintains a "Neutral" rating on them.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) EPS May Increase Incrementally
Lazard's (NYSE:LAZ) could increase incrementally in 2011 and 2012 as the company makes changes to its compensation and financing expenses.
Ticonderoga said, "We suspect that LAZ is moving closer to making structural changes with respect to both compensation expense and their financing profile. Detailed herein, we estimate the potential incremental EPS impact that various changes to compensation expense and/or debt (whether it is a refinancing and/or principal reduction) would have on our current 2011 EPS estimate of $2.48. We estimate that EPS could increase anywhere from 1% to 16% (potentially higher) depending on the degree of comp reduction and/or debt restructured. We note that while we use our 2011 EPS estimate for the analysis, we think that is likely more of a 2012 event. However, even absent a change, we continue to think that LAZ offers the best risk.
Lazard closed Friday at $37.03, rising by $0.12, or 0.33 percent. They maintain a "Buy" rating on them and a price target of $42 a share.
Ticonderoga said, "We suspect that LAZ is moving closer to making structural changes with respect to both compensation expense and their financing profile. Detailed herein, we estimate the potential incremental EPS impact that various changes to compensation expense and/or debt (whether it is a refinancing and/or principal reduction) would have on our current 2011 EPS estimate of $2.48. We estimate that EPS could increase anywhere from 1% to 16% (potentially higher) depending on the degree of comp reduction and/or debt restructured. We note that while we use our 2011 EPS estimate for the analysis, we think that is likely more of a 2012 event. However, even absent a change, we continue to think that LAZ offers the best risk.
Lazard closed Friday at $37.03, rising by $0.12, or 0.33 percent. They maintain a "Buy" rating on them and a price target of $42 a share.
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