Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Silver Bubble for (SLW) (SLV) (SVM) (EXK) (AG)?

With the soaring price of silver, the question is increasingly being asked if silver has now reached bubble proportions and if it's time to sell companies and ETFs like Silver Wheaton Corp., (NYSE:SLW), First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG), Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) and Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE:EXK).

Some have pointed out the positive media coverage concerning investing in silver as a reason to believe it has reached bubble proportions. While that is one possible indicator, it's somewhat weak, because you could pick out any company or sector and make the same conclusion if it's garnering positive comments. Look at Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as an example.

That's not to say there won't be a correction with silver, as it's a given in light of the recent rise in silver prices.

But a bubble implies a price that's not in line with realities, and I can't see that with silver, at least over the long term, as it's an alternative to gold in the investment realm as a hedge against inflation and a place of safety. Add to that growing industrial demand and you have an excellent long-term investment.

In the short term, it is definitely going to correct. With the history of silver being extremely volatile, we'll see some big price swings going forward, but that's simply part of the experience of investing in silver.

As for the silver stocks listed above, they've had a nice boost in share price, but recently have been pulling back. That appears to imply there is some disbelief by investors over the near term concerning the sustainability of of silver prices. They're probably correct.

It's probably not a good time to enter silver, and possibly time to take some profits off the table. But over the long term, taking into account the policies of the Federal Reserve and weak economy, silver should have some way to go before topping off, although it'll be a pretty wild ride.

The bottom line is whether the underlying fundamentals support the price of equities or commodities, and in the case of silver, there's nothing to suggest at this time the fundamentals have changed.

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